Texas has, so far, taken the college football world by surprise. The one-loss Longhorns are currently leading the Big 12 and are poised to have their first very successful season in what feels like forever.
These developments have some fans talking about the holy grail: the College Football Playoff. It could happen, they reason, the rest of the college football world outside of Alabama isn’t great, they say. They’re correct, this isn’t a deep roster of teams in 2018. However, a Texas berth in the College Football Playoff is a little bit premature, but not outside of the realm of possibility.
Yes, the Longhorns are ranked No. 6 in the nation. But according to Bill Connelly’s S&P+, a series of stats and rankings intended to be predictive of a team’s success over the whole season, the Longhorns rate just No. 38. Connelly’s number are by and large accurate when it comes to predicting victories, and so far, the data shows that the Longhorns’ rushing offense without Keaontay Ingram just isn’t explosive enough to predict lots of victories in the points-laden Big 12, and that when the Longhorns turn the ball over, they do it in the worst possible scenarios.
Keep in mind as well that Texas still has to play West Virginia, go on the road to play Texas Tech, and take on the crushing defense of Iowa State. At the halfway mark of the season, though, the Longhorns are still sitting pretty.
You might say, so what, these fancy numbers indicate that the Longhorns are going to lose a game or so, but numbers have been wrong before. You’re correct! Unfortunately for the Longhorns’ playoff hopes, their loss was to Maryland. Maryland looked good at the beginning of the season, but is sitting at a very average 4-3 record at the time of writing. Contrast this with the rest of the current AP top four teams, three of which (Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame) have no losses and LSU, who only has a loss to a top 10 ranked Florida. Yes, the SEC bias is real and is carrying lots of water for that LSU loss, but Florida is still currently a one-loss team and at least deserves to be ranked. Contrast that with Maryland, who, well, doesn’t.
It’s an uphill climb and the Longhorns are working against some tough forces. Fortunately for Tom Herman and the boys, they’re arriving a year early. If the Longhorns don’t make the playoff, don’t sweat it. They’ll return nearly every impact player next year, and be fully ready to make a playoff push in 2019 should they get left out in 2018. Kick back and enjoy the ride.
CAP CITY FIGHT NIGHT
CAP CITY FIGHT NIGHT: UNDERWOOD PROMOTIONS
- No. 9 Baseball wins 7-6 to split series with No. 11 ArkansasLonghorns rally for 7-6 win over Razorbacks.
- Men's Basketball to host Xavier in NIT Second-Round Game on SundayThe Longhorns and Musketeers will play at the Erwin Center at 3 p.m. CT on ESPN.
- No. 2 Women's Swimming takes fifth in 800 free relay at NCAA ChampionshipsThe Longhorn relay dropped the third-fastest time in program history.
- Baseball announces inaugural 'Bark in the Park' presented by Nulo Pet FoodTickets on sale now for dogs to attend the Texas-Kansas State series finale on Sunday, April 14.
- Video: Watkins Award honors Roschon JohnsonEarly enrollee QB Roschon Johnson was recently honored by the Watkins Award in Washington, D.C.
- Men's Basketball defeats South Dakota State, 79-73Senior forward Dylan Osetkowski paced the Longhorns with a career-high 26 points.
/ 2 days ago
SAN FRANCISCO, Calif. – MARCH 19, 2019 – San Antonio Commanders wide receiver/punt returner...
/ 2 days ago
The cross-town district match-up has postseason indications BY DANIEL JONES On a chilly night...
/ 1 week ago
Andrew Felts, Round Rock Express With Opening Day on the horizon, the Round Rock...