Skip to main content

Author: Thomas L. Seltzer

FANTASY BASEBALL: WINNING THE NUMBERS GAME

Written by Thomas L. Seltzer on . Posted in BASEBALL.

The 2020 MLB baseball season starts on March 26th, and the truth is we don’t know anything about where the 30 MLB teams will wind up. Many of the analysts and pundits will tell you the Dodgers are a lock to win the World Series this year, with the acquisition of Mookie Betts. If you want an even-money bet on the Dodgers, I’ll take your bet against the field.  

The fantasy baseball season also starts on March 26th. Fantasy baseball, like fantasy football, is a game within the game. Team owners manage rosters of players, using fictional team names. Scores are determined based on baseball statistics. If you ever wanted to own, or manage a baseball team, you will love playing fantasy baseball. Just like I do. 

In fantasy baseball, there are season-long leagues, keeper leagues and dynasty leagues. There is National League only, American League only and mixed (both leagues). There are points leagues and rotisserie, or “Roto.” I only play Roto because it is the one that requires the most skill in building and managing a roster. Your team must be balanced to win. 

Rotisserie scoring ranks your team against every other team in your league in 10 categories. For position players, the categories are runs, home runs, RBI, stolen bases and batting average. If there are 10 teams, and your team is first in home runs, you get 10 points. If your team is last in home runs, you get one point. Teams are ranked daily for the season. 

In pitching, you have starting pitchers and relief pitchers on your roster. In ESPN leagues, you have nine pitcher roster spots to fill. Keep in mind that the five categories for pitchers are wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. Starting pitchers can help you in four categories. Realistically, relief pitchers can only help you in three – saves, ERA and WHIP.

Head-to-head (H2H) scoring uses the same categories as Rotisserie, but your team plays each of the other teams in your league. At the end of each game or each week the wins/losses are tallied, and if you have more wins than losses you get one winning point for the game or week. If you have more losses than wins, you get one loss point for that game or week.

There is also daily fantasy baseball (DFS). I like season-long fantasy baseball better than daily because it’s more like managing a real baseball team. In the season-long version, you spend time pouring over player stats in preparation for the draft. In the draft, you meticulously fill your roster with hitters and pitchers. Then, you manage your team the season.  

The reality is most people in the 21st century have short attention spans. They don’t want to manage a team for six months. That’s why more people are playing DFS. In fact, it has become one of the hottest trends in fantasy sports, largely because it’s fast, easy and gives you a chance to start over every day with a new team. If that sounds like you, play DFS. 

I don’t play DFS anymore. I’ve dabbled in it before, entering contests and even winning a couple. But I prefer season-long leagues. I play on ESPN, although Yahoo, CBS Sports and others offer leagues. You can play in private leagues, but I’ve always played fantasy baseball in public leagues because I can’t find enough players that want to commit to the season. 

I’ve won every public league I’ve entered in fantasy baseball. Before you think I’m too awesome, I’ll add this. My record is only 4-0. This is my third season playing fantasy baseball. I generally manage two teams per season. One rule is that I never use the same player on both teams. The reason for this is if a player gets injured, I only lose him in one league.

In ESPN leagues, there are 25 roster spots to fill. You have 13 position players, nine pitchers and three players on the bench. When I drafted my first team back in January, I was able to roster many of my favorite position players. However, my pitchers were not as strong as I would have liked – especially relievers. I actually only drafted one relief pitcher. 

On my second team, drafted in February, I felt like I was balanced. I got some solid position players, but I did much better with pitchers in this draft. My starting pitchers are Jack Flaherty, Patrick Corbin, Zack Greinke, Chris Paddack, Tyler Glasnow, Sonny Gray and Zac Gallen. My relief pitchers are Roberto Osuna, Taylor Rogers and Gio Gallegos. 

There is no such thing as a perfect draft. While I do recommend approaching the draft with a plan, your plan will change during the draft. Keep in mind that you have nine other team owners vying for the same players. You might think you’re going to get Bo Bichette in the ninth round, but then you see him taken in the eighth round by someone else.

Don’t lose heart if you miss out on several of the players you were hoping to get in the draft. You can attempt to trade for a player with one of the other owners. Look at the team rosters in your league and figure out what they need. If they are short on pitchers, and you have extra pitching, offer one of your pitchers for a position player you really want.

In my first draft, there was an early run on relief pitchers, and the best closers were gone by the eighth round. I picked up Brad Hand but never got another closer during the draft. When I looked at my team, I had a wealth of power hitters. So, I offered to trade Pete Alonso of the Mets for Josh Hader, the top reliever in baseball. My trade offer was accepted.

But don’t count on trades to fix your team. In public leagues, owners are reluctant to trade. I’m not sure why this is, but it probably has something to do with the fact that everyone in a public league is a stranger. People don’t trust strangers. There is another way to fix your team – utilizing the waiver wire. Undrafted players are listed on the waiver wire each day. 

Hader, the aforementioned player, was a waiver wire find for me in 2018 and helped me win a fantasy baseball championship on one of my teams. Last year, it was Alonso, the rookie sensation, who hit 53 home runs, scored 103 runs and drove in 120 more. Alonso went undrafted, but I picked him up off the wire after he proved himself in spring training.

If you love our national pastime, you may love fantasy baseball as much as I do. Start reading about it online, find a format, league and draft a team. If you don’t feel like you know enough to draft a team, you can simply but your team on “autopick.” Your team will be automatically drafted by the folks at ESPN, of whatever league sponsor you choose.  

For insight or feedback readers can email Thomas Seltzer with questions or comments at [email protected].

Patriots gunning for sixth Super Bowl title

Written by Thomas L. Seltzer on . Posted in NFL FOOTBALL.

The New England Patriots are back in the Super Bowl for the ninth time in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The incredible run for coach and quarterback started back in the 2001 season, when Brady took over as starting quarterback and led the Patriots to their first Super Bowl title.

Their opponent 17 years ago in Super Bowl XXXVI was the Rams, who called St. Louis their home from the 1995 through the 2015 seasons before relocating back to Los Angeles where the team had played from the 1946 season through the 1994 season.

Back in 2002, the Rams were back in the Super Bowl for the second time in three years and favored to beat the Patriots. Their offense included Kurt Warner. Marshall Faulk. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. They were the Greatest Show on Turf, but the Patriots beat them, 20-17.

Since February 3, 2002, the fortunes of the teams have been very different. In the ensuing years, New England has become the greatest dynasty in football history. Since 2001, the Patriots have won 220 regular-season games, 16 AFC East titles and are 29-10 in playoff games.

The Rams, meanwhile, haven’t been back in the Super Bowl since that then. They missed the playoffs in the 2002-2003 season, and lost in the divisional playoff round the next two years before missing the playoffs for 12 consecutive years without having a winning season.

The Patriots opened as a Super Bowl underdog. But   a flood of money came in on Brady’s team, and the line went as high as Rams +2. If the Patriots close as underdogs, it would be the first time they’ve held that distinction in a Super Bowl since the last time the played the Rams.

The Super Bowl traces its roots back to January 15, 1967. On that day, U.S. military and the South Vietnamese army were fighting Vietcong and North Vietnamese forces in the Mekong River delta, and  the Monkees’ “I’m a Believer” was the top song on the radio.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates with his teammates after the AFC Championship NFL football game, Sunday, Jan. 20, 2019, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Super Bowl I between National Football League’s powerhouse Green Bay and the American Football League champion Kansas City was aired on both CBS and NBC. NFL games were carried on CBS then, and NBC aired the AFL games. The Chiefs kept it close for a half but lost 35-10.

Two years later, the New York Jets of the AFL defeated the Baltimore Colts of the NFL 16-7 in a stunning upset that Jets quarterback Joe Namath had guaranteed in spite of being a 18-point underdog. The upstart league won the next two games and were finally taken seriously.

In spite of three straight Super Bowl victories, the undefeated Miami Dolphins were 2-point underdogs before beating the Washington Redskins 14-7 in 1973. Forty-six years later, no NFL team has ever completed an undefeated season – although the Patriots came close 11 years ago.

The 2007-2008 Patriots team in its 8th season under Belichick, won 16 straight regular season games and two playoff games to enter Super Bowl XLII 18-0. On the brink of making history, and starting the game as 12-point favorites, the Patriots lost to the New York Giants, 17-14.

While the Patriots have the most Super Bowl berths (11), the Dallas Cowboys are tied for second with eight. The Cowboys, who won their first Super Bowl in 1972, have won the world championship five times. But the last time was 23 years ago, when Dallas beat Pittsburgh 27-17.

It was forty years ago when Roger Staubach and the Dallas Cowboys battled Terry Bradshaw and the Pittsburgh Steelers in what many consider to be the best Super Bowl of all times. The Cowboys lost 35-31 after Jackie Smith dropped an easy pass in the end zone.

The Cowboys hopes of earning their sixth championship ring in 2019 ended in Los Angeles on January 12th when they lost to the Rams 30-22. The Cowboys had advanced to the divisional round for the first time in four years, defeating the Seattle Seahawks 24-22 the previous week.

The Houston Texans finished the 2018 regular season with an 11-5 record, which was good enough to win the AFC South. After losing the first three games, the Texans won nine straight but bowed out in the first playoff game, losing 21-7 to the Indianapolis Colts.

Read Thomas L. Seltzer’s blog daily at www.doubtingthomassports.com.

Article Sponsored by The Lodge Poker Club & Card House. We feature over 20 tables – Daily cash games and Tournaments. Right off of I-35. Private Rooms, Free Coffee, Comfortable Seating, 30+ Big Screen TV’s, Experienced Dealers. Special Monthly Tournments. Daily Tournaments. Best Dealers in Texas. Cash $ Games Daily.

Texans Christian Covington

Written by Thomas L. Seltzer on . Posted in NFL FOOTBALL.

After losing the first three games of the year, only the most optimistic Houston Texan fan could have imagined this team making the playoffs. But the Texans never lost faith in themselves, according to defensive end Christian Covington.

“There wasn’t an exact moment or event that turned things around,” Covington said. “We approach every week the same way. We have the same mindset. No one wants to be 0-3, and we knew we needed to do something about it.”

And they did. After the disappointing loss at home to the Giants, the Texans won their first game the following week in a shootout with Andrew Luck and the Colts in Indianapolis. Then, it was back to Houston for a showdown with the Cowboys.

“We knew what was at stake in the civil war,” Covington laughed. “There are only two NFL teams in Texas. We’re over here in Houston. When you’re away from your building, you’re exposed to the fan base where everyone loves this team. And everyone hates the Cowboys.”

The Texans prevailed in a hard-fought 19-16 win over their state rivals and then reeled off six more wins, making it eight straight with the win over the Titans on Monday Night Football to closed out November on a high note. In spite the success, Covington said no one was giddy.

“Winning helps out,” Covington said. “It definitely changes the mood, but it doesn’t change our approach to preparing for next game, scouting our opponents and watching film.” Covington described the team as taking a businesslike approach. But there are times when the mood is light.

“You can’t be serious all of the time. This team knows when it’s time to work, it’s time to work. And when it’s time to chill, it’s time to have fun. We have ping pong tournaments all of the time. You have to cut loose and have fun. If it wasn’t fun, we wouldn’t be doing it.”

Fun and work have always mixed naturally into Covington’s life. He worked hard at football since his early days, growing up in the home of a Canadian Football League legend, Grover Covington. The elder Covington, also a defensive end, was a seven-time CFL All-Star.

“I was always trying to be like him,” Covington said of his father, who paved the way for him to get a scholarship to play football at Rice University. Grover Covington played football with Darrell Patterson, assistant head coach of the Owls.

When Patterson came to Houston in 2007, he expanded Rice’s recruiting efforts in Canada, where he had a playing career in the CFL for seven seasons. Patterson contacted Grover Covington, who was updated on Chris’ rapid development at Vancouver College.

The Owls have signed a total of eight Canadians in the past nine years, including Covington and Luke Willson, a tight end for the Detroit Lions. Rice had winning records during the three years Covington played for the Owls (2012-2014).

Injuries ended Covington’s 2014 season prematurely after seven games. In spite of that, Covington passed up an opportunity to return to Rice for his senior year and entered the NFL draft in 2015. He was drafted by the Texans in the sixth round, 216th overall,

“I knew I was ready,” Covington said, although he admitted there was no guarantee he would be drafted. “Being selected by the Texans was a dream come true. Only 250 players in the entire world are drafted into the NFL each year. I was blessed.”

In his first two seasons in the NFL, Covington and the Texans won the AFC South. They advanced to the second round of the playoffs in 2016, but then came the tough 2017 season when they finished 4-12. In Week 8, Covington suffered a torn bicep which ended his season.

In spite of the setback, Covington came back in top shape and earn his job back. He had a brief starring role in the Texans’ November 18 victory over the Redskins. Covington delivered the key block that enabled rookie safety Justin Reid to sprint 101 yards for a touchdown.

“Just doing my job, man,” Covington said modestly. “We’re told since my rookie year on any turnover to look around and find a guy to block.” Covington had also pressured Washington quarterback Alex Smith leading up to the game-changing turnover.

“Winning is great,” Covington said. It definitely changes things. We’re enjoying the wins, but we’ve got to keep it going. You have to stay on an even keel. When you start reading your own press clippings, that’s when you get into trouble.”

As the NFL regular season heads into the final month, the Texans are in the playoff picture. The first order of business is to win the AFC South again, but they must fend off the Colts and Titans. As November ended, the Texans had a two-game lead on the Colts.

The regular season ends Dec. 30 with all teams in action in 16 division games. The Texans close out the regular season at home, hosting the Jaguars.

What have you done for me lately Jerry?

Written by Thomas L. Seltzer on . Posted in NFL FOOTBALL.

The Dallas Cowboys’ 59th NFL season is under way, their 30th under the ownership of Jerry Jones. No franchise has a richer history than the Cowboys, who have won five Super Bowls and are the most valuable sports team in the world. Forbes sets the value at $4.8 billion.
A few short months before Jones bought the Cowboys and fired Head Coach Tom Landry, I had the privilege of meeting Landry. The date was November 20, 1988, and the Cowboys had just lost 38-24 to Boomer Esiason’s Cincinnati Bengals. It was their eighth straight loss.
As a kid growing up, I watched Landry prowl the sidelines of Sundays. He was the man in the hat, the stoic leader of America’s team, impeccably dressed and sporting a fedora. In those days, I didn’t like the Cowboys since I lived in St. Louis, home of the Cardinals (before they moved west).
On that day in 1988, that same stoic man was standing in front of me, bigger than life. Always the gentleman, Landry was calmly answering questions in a press conference in the Cowboys locker room at Texas Stadium. I was the sports editor of the now defunct Shreveport Journal at the time.
At the press conference, Landry was trying to explain how America’s team had slipped to 2-10. The team had been in decline since the mid-1980s, but things had gone from bad to worse. The last time the Cowboys had lost eight games in a row was in their first season under Landry – 1960.
 The Cowboys had been an NFL powerhouse for more than two decades but were now the NFL whipping boy. Still, Landry had nothing but accolades for the 9-3 Bengals, and he had no disparaging words for his beleaguered team. Landry was a man who epitomized the word “classy.”
“We’re having a tough year,” I recall Landry stating in his normal deadpan voice. That was an understatement from the man who had become a lightning rod for all of the criticism directed at his team. Cowboy fans weren’t accustom to losing, and they weren’t handling it well.
I recall that I wrote a column the next day entitled “What have you done for us lately, Tom Landry?” Had all of these myopic boneheads forgotten Landry’s legacy? In spite of finishing with a 3-13 record in 1988, Landry’s record during his 29 seasons with the Cowboys was 418-250.
Landry and my favorite cartoonist, Charles Schulz, creator of Charlie Brown, died on the same day: February 12, 2000. Mike Thompson, the Detroit Free Press cartoonist, honored them with a cartoon showing the pair entering the pearly gates together. Landry had his arm around Schulz.
I was saddened by Landry’s passing, but I’ve always considered that his first death occurred three months after I met him that day at Texas Stadium. It was February 25, 1989, and Jones’ first act as the new owner of the team was to announce the firing of Landry.
Jones went on to announce that University of Miami coach Jimmy Johnson, who played with Jones at Arkansas, would replace Landry. Like Landry, Jones had a tough first year. The Cowboys were 1-15 in 1989, but they went on to win Super Bowls in 1992 and 1993.
On the 25th anniversary of Jones’ purchase of the Cowboys and firing of Landry, Jones admitted that he acted too quickly in firing Landry after 29 years as the team’s head coach. “If I had a chance to do it over again I would’ve waited a year and just got my feet on the ground,” Jones said.
No one can dispute Jones’ success as a businessman. He bought the Cowboys from H.R. “Bum” Bright for $140 million, and it’s worth 35 times that much today. Taking a “hands-on” approach, Jones is also the Cowboys’ general manager. It’s not uncommon to see him down on the field with his team.
The 71-year-old billionaire makes it work. In three decades with Jones at the helm, the team have won three Super Bowls. But the last of those titles was 22 years ago, and Cowboys fans have grown restless. “What have you done for us, lately, Jerry Jones?”

 

If Reality isn’t Enough, try Fantasy Football

Written by Thomas L. Seltzer on . Posted in NFL FOOTBALL, TEXAS SPORTS.

If you love football, you will love fantasy football. This is your opportunity to be an NFL team general manager/coach, adding an extra layer of fandom to regular professional football watching. The best way to get started is to join a league. You can play in a league with your buddies, or join by yourself. The most popular leagues are sponsored by Yahoo and ESPN. I prefer the latter. Both use a head-to-head scoring format, in a 13-week regular season and 3- or 4-week playoff bracket system. League drafts are starting now.
Drafting your team is the first step, and participating in a live draft is exhilarating. However, you don’t need to participate in the draft. Last year, I had a schedule conflict and couldn’t attend my draft, so my team was selected by ESPN, via auto pick. If you don’t know anything about the game, auto pick is a good way to start. After you assemble a team, you’ll rely on what your players do in actual games every week to generate fantasy points. The team with the most fantasy points each week wins his/her head-to-head match.
At its core, fantasy football is a math-based game based on the real-life production of players. Each week, you fill out a roster by “starting” players at the various positions allowed based on your league settings. These usually include one quarterback (QB), two running backs (RB), two wide receivers (WR), one tight end (TE), one kicker (K), one defense (D/ST) and one FLEX (usually RB or WR). There are a total of nine in your starting lineup, but you also have seven players on your bench. Bench player stats don’t count.
The statistics your starting players accumulate on the field (yards, touchdowns, etc.) contribute to their point total for the week. The point totals of all of the players in your starting lineup are tallied, and if you have a higher total than your opponent (another member of your league) you win that week. You set your lineup based on your perception of who will play best on a given week. There are standard leagues and PPR (point-per-reception) leagues, where tight ends and running backs receive a point for each reception.
Each week will proceed like this until the end of the fantasy regular season (Week 13). At this point, the teams with the best win-loss records will enter the fantasy playoffs, for win-or-go-home head-to-head matchups. Depending on the number of teams in your league, the playoffs can last three, or four weeks. Whoever wins all of his/her games in the playoffs is the league champion. Last year, I was playing in a 10-team ESPN league, and six made the playoffs. Two teams got a bye in the first week of the playoffs.
Winning is simple (not easy). You choose the best players, through the draft and waiver wire, work around injuries and decide the right players to start each week. Remember, you have 16 players on your team but only nine in your starting lineup. The points scored by the others on the bench don’t count. That’s why it’s so important to choose the right starters. Look at matchups, which are critical. You can spend a little, or a lot of time looking at the stats to determine who to start each week. It can become a second job if you let it.
One mistake you must avoid in the draft is wasting a draft pick on a quarterback in the early rounds. There is large supply of good quarterbacks. If you’re in a 10-team league, there will be ten starting quarterbacks selected, but there are a total of 32 NFL quarterbacks, and most of them are good enough to draft. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady might get drafted as early as the fourth round. But you will probably be able to get Alex Smith in the 12th round. Smith averaged 18.3 fantasy points last year – the same as Brady.
The most important players to draft in the early rounds are running backs and wide receivers. In my opinion, you will want to select a workhorse running back in the first round. This is a guy who will get a lot of carries each week. If you’re in a PPR league, you want a running back who also catches a lot of passes. Some leagues award a point for each reception, and some just a half-point. This makes a big difference. There is a short supply of really good running backs, so don’t hesitate to load up on running backs early on.
Wide receivers are harder to predict. Antonio Brown is in a league by himself, and you can draft him in the first round with a high level of confidence. He won’t be available in the second round. DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham are in the second tier. Then you have Michael Thomas, Devante Adams, Keenan Allen and A.J. Green in the third tier. I would predict that all seven of the second-  and third-tier wide receivers will be gone in the second round. But I’d still rather have two top running backs on my team.
The middle rounds are also important, and this is where no one seems to agree on the talent. By the time you get to the third round, you’ll see pundits with a variety of opinions on the talent of these players. My advice is to read about the different players and make your own decision based on what sounds right. I will enter this year’s draft with an idea of who I will draft, and who I won’t draft. Then, I’ll let the players come to me, based on my draft order and what other players decide to do. This is not entirely predictable.
The late rounds (12-16) are the rounds where you will want to pick up your quarterback, defense and kicker. You may even select your tight end in one of the late rounds, but you would also be justified to spend a third-round pick to select Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots’ tight end. Gronk is in a class by himself, and he is Brady’s favorite receiver. If I can draft Gronk in the third round, I will do so. However, if someone else gets him first, I will wait. The No. 2 tight end if Travis Kelce, and he is projected to go late in the third round.
After the draft, you take off your general manager hat and put on your head coach hat. Who will you start in week 1? You’ll probably be going with the guys you drafted in the earlier rounds until they prove to be inferior to other players acquired later. But you also need to look at opponent strength and matchups, as I stated earlier. Dig into the statistics because this is the key to your success. You’re going to have injuries throughout the season, and you will also have bye weeks. You need to bench all players during their bye weeks.
I don’t want to minimize the importance of the draft, but you will not win or lose a fantasy championship with a draft. Last season, my No. 1 pick overall in the draft was David Johnson, and he was injured in the first quarter and lost for the season. Andrew Luck, my drafted quarterback, never played a game in 2017. I still managed to win the championship because I worked the waiver wire. I found Saints running back Alvin Kamara on the waiver wire in week three but dropped him. Later, I had to trade to get him, but it was worth it.
You won’t know how good, or bad, your fantasy team is after the draft. They may look good on paper, but the guys you think are studs could be duds. You could also have a rash of injuries. The good news is that there are always undiscovered stars waiting to be acquired on the waiver wire. You must be looking for that talent. Fantasy football is like life – you get out of it what you put into it. The harder you work at it, the luckier you will get in winning games and ultimately the coveted league championship. Have fun, and Godspeed.
Read Thomas L. Seltzer’s blog daily at www.doubtingthomassports.com.